PERAMALAN PENUMPANG PELAYARAN DALAM NEGERI DI PELABUHAN TANJUNG PRIOK DENGAN METODE ARIMA BOX-JENKINS DAN METODE VARIASI KALENDER ARIMAX

Abstract

Sea transportation is an inseparable and indispensable part of society in everyday life

for Indonesian people especially during special moment such as Eid al-Fitr. This can be shown by the increasing of the number of sea transport passengers duringEid al-Fitr every  year.  The  month  shift  during  Eid  al-Fitr  shows  the  effect  of  calendar variation.The calendar variation method is a method that combines the dummy regression model with the ARIMA model. The purpose of this research is to obtain the best model by using time series analysis approach on ARIMA Box-Jenkins method and calendar variationARIMAX method to predict the number of domestic sea passenger at Tanjung Priok Port for 12 periods in the future. Based on the analysison the data of the number of domestic sea passenger at the Port of Tanjung Priok, it is concluded that the method of calendar variationARIMAX as the best method with ARIMA model (0, 0, [3]), V2,t,S1,t, S2,t, S3,t, S4,t, S5,t, S6,t, S7,t, S8,t, S9,t, S10,t, S11,t,t, V1,tt, V2,tt, S7,tt,S8,tt, S9,ttbecause it has  the  smallest  MAPE value  that  is  14.3782%  which  indicates  that  the  result  of forecasting is good.

Keywords : Sea Passengers, ARIMA Box-Jenkins, Calendar Variation, ARIMAX