PREDICTION OF RAINFALL IN DKI JAKARTA PROVINCE BASED ON THE FOURIER SERIES ESTIMATOR

Zidni Ilmatun Nurrohmah(1*), Diana Ulya(2), Qumadha Zainal Abidin(3), Syifaun Nadhiro(4), Nur Chamidah(5)


(1) Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Airlangga University, Indonesia
(2) Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Airlangga University, Indonesia
(3) Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Airlangga University, Indonesia
(4) Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Airlangga University, Indonesia
(5) Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Airlangga University, Indonesia
(*) Corresponding Author

Abstract


Abstract: Rainfall is the height of rainwater in a rain gauge on a flat place that does not seep and flow, where rainfall is measured in millimeters (mm). This study aims to estimate and model the rainfall for DKI Jakarta Province from January 2016 to December 2021 using the Fourier series estimation. Based on the results of the study, a model with a minimum GCV value of 21909,4, at the 7th 𝝀 43,78972. This model shows that the predictor variable can explain the diversity of response variables by 94,14%.


Keywords


Rainfall; Fourier Series; Nonparametric Regression; GCV

Full Text:

PDF

References


Handmer, J., Honda, Y., Kundzewicz, Z. W., Arnell, N., Benito, G., Hatfield, J., et al,”Changes in Impacts of Climate Extremes: Human Systems and Ecosystems. In C.B. Field, V. Barros, T. F. Stocker, & Q. Dahe (Eds.), Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation,” Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, pp. 231–290, 2012

N. Chamidah, S. D. Febriana, R. A. Ariyanto, and R. Sahawaly , "Fourier series estimator for predicting international market price of white sugar," AIP Conference Proceedings 2329, 060035, 2021

Desvina, A. P., dan Ratnawati,”Penerapan model vector autoregressive (VAR) untuk peramalan curah hujan kota pekanbaru. Jurnal Sains, Teknologi dan Industri,” 11(2), pp. 151–159, 2014

Eubank. R, L, “Nonparametric Regression and Spline Smoothing Second Edition,” New York: Marcel Deker, 1999

Bilodeau. M, “Fourier Smootherand Additive Models, TheCanadian of Statistic,” 3, pp. 257-259, 1992

Wei, W. W. S. “Time Series Analysis, Univariate and Multivariate Methods, Second Edition,” United State of America: Pearson Education, Inc, 2006


Article Metrics

Abstract view : 341 times
PDF - 101 times

DOI: https://doi.org/10.26714/jsunimus.10.2.2022.34-42

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c) 2023 Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang

Editorial Office:
Department of Statistics
Faculty Of Mathematics And Natural Sciences 
Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang

Jl. Kedungmundu No. 18 Semarang Indonesia



Published by: 
Department of Statistics Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang

View My Stats

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License