PERAMALAN PRODUKSI TEH HIJAU DENGAN PENDEKATAN AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE

Abstract

Tea plantation is one aspect of the lucrative agricultural sector in Indonesia.
The world's need for very large plantation commodities, especially tea. the
production of tea shoots as a raw material greatly determines the continuity of
tea production as a whole. Tea production usually fluctuates from time to time.
To establish a management view of future tea productivity forecasting, we can
use the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (Time Series) Autoregressive
Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) analysis. With the MSE value of 0.03668
the best ARIMA model obtained is ARIMA (1.0.0), with general forecasting
model:

The data used is the production data of tea sales at PT. Rumpun Sari Medini from 2011-2016. The purpose of this research is to predict the amount of tea
sales production at PT. Rumpun Sari Medini Year 2017. Based on the results of
this study, it was found that the highest tea production value occurred in
December 2017 of 226,670 quintals, while the lowest production in January
2017 was 226,603 quintals.

Keyword: ARIMA, Peramalan Produksi Teh, PT. Rumpun Sari Medini